The IEA (International Energy Agency) issued a report and surprised the world, notably the oil-producing countries. The agency has indicated when the end of oil will start as the main source of fuel and energy in light of the growing use of clean energy. It is noteworthy that oil demand worldwide is expected to slow from 2025 due to fuel efficiency improvement and an increase in the use of electric-powered vehicles. But, the IEA said that it is unlikely to peak in the next 2-decades. The Paris-based agency advises Western governments on energy policies in its annual World Energy Outlook for 2040. The agency said that growth in energy demand would continue to increase, but it would slow down significantly at the beginning of the decade, in 2030.
The agency has indicated that its forecasts are essential, which combines energy policies with stated goals. It was also said that oil demand is expected to rise one million barrels a day on average until 2025 from 97 million barrels a day in 2018. The IEA is expecting an increase in the demand to increase by an average of 0.1 million BPD per year during the decade starting 2030 to 106 million BPD in 2040. There is a significant amount of slowdown after 2025; it would not lead to a definite peak in oil use. The Agency also mentioned an increased demand in Trucks, shipping, aviation, and petrochemical sectors.
Moreover, the use of oil in passenger vehicles is expected to increase at the end of the decade starting in 2020 due to an increase in electric passenger vehicles. The Paris-based agency predicted that there will be at least 330 million electric vehicles on the road by 2040. It is up from 300 million projected in last year’s report, which would remove more than 4 million barrels per day of oil use, compared with 3.3 million BPD in earlier forecasts. The major increase in oil production in the United States is expected to be the largest oil producer in the world, along with Iraq and Brazil. It is noteworthy that the Agency is hopeful the U.S crude production increase to 11 million barrels a day in 2035 from 6 million barrels a day in 2018.